Elon Musk, the magnate behind Tesla, SpaceX, and X (formerly Twitter), is not exactly known for his subtlety. And his recent statement about the future of war and national sovereignty is a reality check that resonates strongly. The era of large armored formations may be giving way to a silent aerial battle, where the ability to manufacture and deploy drones becomes as vital as having an army.
The era of the drone: Technology vs. Sovereignty?
Musk’s warning, as reported by outlets such as Xataka, is direct and straightforward: countries that do not develop their own drone manufacturing capabilities will be in a critically dependent position compared to those powers that do. This statement goes beyond mere technology acquisition; it points to autonomy, the ability to design, produce, and control a tool that is proving to be crucial in modern conflicts.
The conflict in Ukraine has been a painful reminder of the impact that drones, from the most sophisticated to commercially adapted ones, have on the battlefield. Their reconnaissance capability, precise attack, and relatively low cost make them an unprecedented force multiplier. If you cannot manufacture them yourself, you are entirely dependent on an external supplier, with all the political, economic, and strategic implications that entails.
“The vassal state” of the 21st century: A new form of dependence
The terminology of “vassal state” used by Musk is not coincidental. It evokes a medieval relationship of subordination, where a lesser entity owed loyalty and service to a more powerful one. In this new technological context, a “vassal state” would be one that, unable to defend itself or project power without the consent of a third party (which supplies the key technology), loses an intrinsic part of its sovereignty.
This has giant implications.
- Dependency on defense: Decisions on national security could be dictated by the availability and supply conditions of drones from a foreign power.
- Limitation of autonomy: The lack of capacity for in-house manufacturing restricts a country’s ability to adapt, innovate, or even repair its own fleet of drones, leaving it at the mercy of the export policies of others.
- Technological delay: Not investing in this capability now is condemning oneself to a technological delay that could be insurmountable in the future, eroding the competitiveness and global influence of a nation.
Musk is painting a picture where technological self-sufficiency, especially in dual-use areas (civil and military) like drones, becomes the new frontier of geopolitics.
Beyond War: Civil Airspace Control
Although Musk’s statement focuses on the military field, the ability to manufacture drones has much broader implications. Airspace control is also civilian: drones for logistics, infrastructure surveillance, precision agriculture, package delivery, and countless emerging applications. If a country lacks the capacity to produce its own systems, it could be limited in its economic development and future infrastructure.
Musk’s warning is a wake-up call for governments around the world. It’s not just about buying drones, but about mastering the technology behind them. The sovereignty of tomorrow is not only measured in square kilometers of territory, but in the ability to innovate and control the tools that will define power in the digital age. It’s time to decide: will we be the creators of the future or perpetual customers in the store of foreign technology?