The victory of the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, marks one of the most notable and dramatic political shifts in recent Canadian history: just a few months ago, everything pointed to a triumph for conservative Pierre Poilievre, but the threats from Donald Trump, including his desire to annex the country and turn it into “the 51st state,” altered the electoral landscape and mobilized voters in the opposite direction.
Thanks to the “Trump factor,” this morning liberals were on track for a solid victory with 168 out of the 343 seats available in the House of Commons already secured. The threshold for an absolute majority is 172, so it remains to be seen if they will need the support of other smaller parties to govern stably.
The Liberals were also heading towards a victory in the popular vote (43.5%), which they had lost in the 2021 elections (32.6%).
The polarization of Canadian politics strengthened the two main parties in the country, as both the Liberals and Conservatives increased their number of Members of Parliament, at the expense of the Bloc Québécois (losing 9 seats) and the New Democratic Party (losing 18 seats).
These elections were triggered by the crisis of the liberals, which forced the announcement of the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in early January and then the internal party election of Carney as his replacement.
What did Trump say about Canada?
Just when he took office Trump unleashed a trade war with Canada and, amidst the tension, he added the threat that the neighboring country should become the 51st state of the United States. These comments outraged a large part of the Canadian electorate, with strong displays of rejection such as booing the U.S. anthem during NBA and NHL games.
Even on Monday, April 28, the day of the elections, Trump reiterated his desire to annex Canada through Truth Social.
This widespread rejection particularly weakened figures associated with the style of the US president, such as Poilievre, known for his combative rhetoric and his slogan “Canada First” inspired by Trump’s “America First.” In fact, in these general elections, the leader of the Conservative Party ended up losing even his own seat in Parliament, as projected by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. This downfall sealed a bitter election for the Conservatives, who were hoping to return to power after more than a decade.
Carney’s response to Trump’s threats
In his first speech after the elections, Mark Carney emphasized the importance of national unity in the face of “pressures from Washington.” He also stated that the mutual agreement that Canada and the United States had maintained since World War II had come to an end, indicating a fundamental shift in bilateral relations.
Carney warned that “President Trump is trying to break us so he can possess us”, emphasizing the need to be alert and recognize the new geopolitical environment. This tone of national defense resonated among voters, particularly at a time when trade and political threats were affecting the Canadian economy.
Although the triumph represents a strong endorsement for Carney, the path ahead will not be easy. The possibility of a minority Parliament opens the door to complex negotiations and alliances. Additionally, Canada continues to face a cost of living crisis, and its economy, closely linked to the United States, remains vulnerable to new escalations of trade tensions.